Teodosio Pérez Amaral

Phone: +34 91 394 2380

Fax:     +34 91 394 2613

Economía Cuantitativa
Económicas Somosaguas

Universidad Complutense de Madrid
28223, Madrid, Spain


Last modification: October 2013

In Memoriam, Hal White

View my research on my SSRN page:




  • BA in Economics, University Complutense of Madrid, 1978
  • MA in Economics, University of California San Diego, 1983
  • Ph. D. in Economics, University of California San Diego, 1989
  • Acreditado a Catedrático de Universidad, 2010

  1. Publications
  2. Projects and contracts
  3. Areas of Interest
  4. Current Undergraduate teaching
  5. Other


1. Publications


Click here  to see recent papers available at SSRN


·         (2013) "Customer Service Quality and Incomplete Information in Mobile Telecommunications: A Game Theoretical Approach to Consumer Protection” in The Smart Revolution toward a Sustainable Digital Society: The Players, Stakeholders, and Regulators, H. Mitomo, H. Fuke and E. Bohlin editors, Edward Elgar, (with Rafael López, Teresa Garín and Covadonga Gijón).

·         (2013) “Satisfaction of Individual Mobile Phone Users in Spain”, forthcoming in Telecommunications Policy (with Covadonga Gijón, Teresa Garín and Rafael López).

·         (2013) "The Effect of Educational Mismatch on Wages using European Panel Data", forthcoming in Journal of Policy Modeling (with Iñaki iriondo).

·         (2013) “GFC-Robust Risk Management under the Basel Accord Using Extreme Value Methodologies”, forthcoming in Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, (with Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin, Michael McAleer and Paulo Santos). DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2013.08.010.

·         (2013) “Risk Modelling and Management: An Overview”, forthcoming in Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (with Michael McAleer, Chia-Lin Chang and David Allen) DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2013.08.00.

·         (2013) "Defensa de los consumidores individuales de telefonía móvil en España. De la calidad técnica a la calidad del servicio", Papeles de Economía Española, 136, 100-113 (with Rafael López and Teresa Garín).

·         (2013) "Product differences and e-purchasing: an empirical study with Spanish data", forthcoming in Essays in Honor of Lester Taylor, James Alleman, ed. (with Teresa Garín).

·         (2013) "The Rise and Fall of S&P500 Variance Futures", The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 25, 2013, 151-167, (with Chialin Chang, Juan Ángel Jimenez-Martin and Michael McAleer). JCR = 0.757.


·         (2013) "Risk Management of Risk under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures", forthcoming in  Mathematics and Computer in Simulation, (with Roberto Casarin, Chialin Chang, Juan Ángel. Jimenez-Martin and Michael McAleer). JCR = 0.738.


·         (2013) "Some Empirical Aspects of Entrepreneurship in Twentieth-Century Spain",  in Entrepreneurship and Growth: an International Historical Perspective, Ed. Gabriel Tortella and Gloria Quiroga, Palgrave, MaCmillan, 115-132, (with José Luis García-Ruiz).

·         (2013) "GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord", International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 27, 97-111, (with Michael McAleer and Juan Angel Jiménez Martín).

·         (2013) "International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under the Basel Accord", Journal of Forecasting, Volume 32, 3, 267–288, (with Juan Ángel Jiménez-Martin and Michael McAleer).

·         (2012) "In Memoriam Professor Halbert L. White, 1950-2012 ", Journal of Economic Surveys, 26, 4, 551-554, (with Michael M. McAleer).

·          (2011) "Factores determinantes del comercio electrónico en España", Cuadernos Económicos de ICE, 3016, 51-65 (with Teresa Garín).

·         (2011) "Risk Management of Risk under the Basel Accord: Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures". Managerial Finance, 37, 11, 1088-1106 (with Chialin Chang, Juan Ángel Jimenez-Martin and Michael McAleer).

·         (2011) "Internet usage for travel and tourism. The case of Spain". Tourism Economics, 17 (5), 1071-1085. (with Teresa Garín).

·         (2010) "Negocio y Regulación de las Redes de Acceso de Nueva Generación: Aproximación al Caso Español Aplicando Opciones Reales". Economía Industrial, 377, 34-45, (with Fernando Gallardo).

·         (2010) "Product differences and e-purchasing: an empirical study with Spanish data". Política Económica y Regulatoria en Telecomunicaciones, 5, 68-81, (with Teresa Garín).

·         (2010) “What Happened to Risk Management during the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?", in Lessons from the Financial Crisis: Insights and Analysis from Today’s Leading Minds, 307-316, edited by Robert W. Kolb, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (with Juan Ángel Jiménez-Martin and Michael McAleer).

·         (2009) “A Decision Rule to Minimize Daily Capital Charges in Forecasting Value-at-Risk”, Journal of Forecasting 29(7), 317-334 (with Juan Ángel Jiménez-Martin and Michael McAleer). http://ssrn.com/abstract=1349844

·         (2009) “Optimal Risk Management Before, During and After the 2008-09 Financial Crisis".  Medium for Econometric Applications, MET  17, 21-27 (with Juan Ángel Jiménez-Martin and Michael McAleer).

·         (2009) “The Ten Commandments for Managing Value-at-Risk Under the Basel II Accord”. Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol 5, 831-8, (with Juan Ángel Jiménez-Martin and Michael McAleer). http://ssrn.com/abstract=1356803

·         (2009) "Electronic commerce in Spain", in Telecommunication markets: drivers and impediments. Editors: Preissl, B. Curwen, P and J. Haucap. Physica Verlag, (with  Leonel Cerno).

·         (2008) Ejercicios Electrónicos de Econometría I y II KEHTI, Econometrics I and II Toolbox, (with Juan Ángel Jiménez, Dolores Robles Fernández, Marcos Bujosa, and Blanca Martínez).

·         (2008) "The Spanish Case" in Politikberatung Kompact 44, Telecommunications policies in Comparison: Industrial Policy Indicators, Pio Baake, Christian Wey, 2008. ISBN-10 3-938762-35-7, ISBN-13 978-3-938762-35-6, ISSN 1614-6921 de: 0084- diwkompakt_2008-0447. (with  Pio Baake, Christian Wey, Michel Berne, Peter J. Curwen, Fernando Gallardo, Daniel Nepelski, Gérard Pogorel, Enzo Pontarollo, Vanessa V. Schlippenbach, and Jason Whalley).

·         (2008) "Medición de la brecha digital en España" in El impacto de las tecnologías de la Información en la Sociedad Española. Directors Jesús Banegas Núñez and Rafael Myro, Editorial Thomson Civitas, 2008, 4 (with Leonel Cerno).

·         (2006) "Demand for internet Access and Use in Spain", in Governance of Communication Networks, connecting societies and Markets with IT, Preissl, B. and Müller, J. editors, Physica Verlag, 2006. ISBN 3790817457 / 9783790817454 / 3-7908-1745-73 (with Leonel Cerno).

·         (2005) "A Comparison of Complementary Automatic Modelling Methods: RETINA and PCGETS",  Econometric Theory, 21, 2005, 262-277 (with  Giampiero Gallo and Halbert White).

·         (2003) "A Flexible tool for Model Building: the Relevant Transformation of the Inputs Network Approach (RETINA)", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 65, supplement, 305-323 (with Giampiero Gallo, and Halbert White).

·         (2001) "The evolution of the Ph in Europe 1986-1997 with panel data", Chemosphere, 45, 329-337 (with Eduardo Marín, Antonio Rua and Eduardo Hernández).

·         (2000) “An Econometric Model for International Tourism Flows to Spain”, Applied Economics Letters, 2000, 7, 525-529 (with Teresa Garin Muñoz).

·         (1999) “The Economic Impact of Investment in Infrastructures of Telecommunications in Spain: 1964-1993”, Journal of Systems and Information Technology, 1, 3, 35-48, (with Rafael Flores de Frutos, Mercedes Gracia Díez,  and Pedro J. Vega-Catena).

·         (1999) “A Model of Spain-Europe Telecommunications”, Applied Economics, 31, 989-997, (with Teresa Garin Muñoz).

·         (1998) “Demand for Telephone Lines and Universal Service in Spain”, Information Economics and Policy, 10, 501-514, (with Antonio Rodríguez Andrés). 

·         (1998) “Econometric Modeling of Spanish Very Long Distance International Telephone traffic”, Information Economics and Policy, 10, 2, 237-252, (with Teresa Garin Muñoz).

·         (1998) “Public Capital Stock and Economic Growth: an Analysis of the Spanish Economy”, Applied Economics, 30, 985-994, 1998 (with Rafael Flores and Mercedes Gracia). 

·         (1997)  “Telecomunicaciones: ¿llega la liberalización?”, Economistas, n1 74, 88-95.

·         (1996)  “Demand for International Telephone Traffic in Spain: an Econometric Study Using Provicial Panel Data”, Information Economics and Policy, 8, 289-315, 1996 (with Teresa Garin Muñoz).

·         (1995) “Business Telephone Traffic Demand in Spain 1980-1991: an Econometric Approach”, Information Economics and Policy, 7, 115-134, 1995 (with Francisco Alvarez and Bernardo Moreno).

·         (1994) “Una aplicación de los contrastes m y de la matriz de información dinámica”, Investigaciones Económicas. Vol XVIII, (1), 193-201.

·         (1993)  “Contrastes de momentos y de la matriz de información”, Cuadernos Económicos del ICE, n1 55, 225-241.

·         (1993)  “Contrastes m y de la matriz de información dinámica con una aplicación a regresión lineal” Estadística Española, Vol 35, n1 133, 251-277.

·         (1993)  “El comportamiento en muestras finitas de los contrastes m y de la matriz de información dinámica: simulaciones”, Estadística Española, Vol 35, 123-140,  January-April.

·         (1993)  “Un estudio econométrico de la demanda de tráfico telefónico particular en España, 1980-1990” Investigaciones Económicas, Vol XVII (2), 363-378.

·         (1993)  “Comentario a Guía para la estimación de modelos ARCH”, Estadística Española, Vol 35, 64-67, January-April.

·         (1992)  “Estimación de funciones de tipos medios para los impuestos personales sobre la renta en países de la OCDE: cálculo de las elasticidades y progresión residual”, Cuadernos Aragoneses de Economía, second epoch, Vol 2, n11-2, p. 111-120.

·         (1992)  “Ejercicios de Econometría Empresarial” Editorial McGraw Hill, (with Pablo Amorós and Silvia Relloso).

·         (1991) “Los efectos de sustituir cotizaciones empresariales por IVA: el estado de la cuestión”, Cuadernos Aragoneses de Economía, second epoch, Vol 1, n1 2, 405-410.

·         (1990) “Algunas consideraciones sobre la demanda de dinero y la política monetaria”, Economistas, n1 45-46, August-November, 213-217.              

·         (1988) “La elasticidad del IRPF: una aplicación de la estimación de funciones de tipos efectivos”, Boletín Económico del Banco de España, May 1988, (with Isabel Argimón Maza).          

·         (1988) “Social Security and Private Saving: a Reconsideration of the Assumptions”, Applied Economics, Vol. 20, n1 8, August, 1057-1070, (with Adolfo Todo-Rovira).

·         (1987) “El efecto estabilizador del IRPF”, Boletín Económico del Banco de España, May, (with José Marín Arcas).

View my research on my SSRN Author page:



2. Projects and contracts

2.1.- Projects

·         Some aspects of econometric modeling with applications: financial markets, methodology and investment in infrastructures, DGICYT-PB99, 2000-2002.

·         Model selection using the Relevant Transformations of the Inputs Network Approach RETINA, (with Halbert L. White and Giampiero Gallo).

·         Simplifying the construction of VMA and VARMA models: linear methods of estimation and automatic methods of state space models. DGICYT- PB98-0789, until 2001.

·         Interventions in imperfectly competitive markets with applications to telecommunications: regulation and demand of services. DGICYT: SEJ2004-06948/ECON, until 2007, principal researcher.

·         Imperfectly competitive markets: theoretical and empirical analysis. Regulation, and demand. DGICYT: ECO2008-06191/ECON, until 2011, principal researcher.

2.2.- Contracts

·         Study on the effects on the competition of bundling. Margin squeeze on termination in mobile telephony in the European business market. Direction General of the Competition, European Commission, Brussels, 2003.

·         European regulation of telecommunications, DIW Institute in behalf of Deutsche Telekom,  Berlin, 2004-07.

·         Comparison of telecommunications regulations across Europe, DIW Institute in behalf of Deutsche Telekom Berlin, 2008.

·         Evaluator, independent expert, European Commission, FP-ICT-2009-5-ICT-CSA.



3. Areas of interest

  • Economics of Telecommunications, demand of telecommunications services.
  • Panel data econometrics.
  • Model selection in econometric models, RETINA (Relevant Transformations of the Inputs Network Approach)
  • Finance, VaR, strategies for risk communication.

4. Current Undergraduate and Graduate Teaching

Econometrics, Applied Econometrics, Econometría Superior, Series temporales.

5. Other

A. Employment:

1.      Profesor Titular de Universidad, University Complutense of Madrid, 1991-present

2.      Assistant professor, CUNEF, 1988-2002.

3.      Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand, 2007-present.

4.      Catedrático de Universidad interino, University Complutense of Madrid, 1989-1991.

5.      Staff Economist, Department of Studies and Research, (Titulado Superior del Servicio de Estudios),tenured position, Bank of Spain, 1986-9.

6.      Teaching Assistant, University of California, San Diego, 1982-1986.


B. Selected graduate and undergraduate courses taught.

1.      Master in Economics of Telecommunications, National University at a Distance, UNED, Spain, 2001-2009.

2.      Multivariate analysis, PhD course,  University of Oviedo, 2006-2008

3.      Managing the radioelectric spectrum, conference for the Thai telecommunications regulator, in Chalmers University, Göteborg, Sweden 2008.

4.      Econometrics as a tool for decision making and policy in Telecommunications, PhD course, Chalmers University, Göteborg, Sweden. 2008

5.      Applied Econometrics, PhD course, University of Las Tunas, Cuba, 2008.

6.      Panel data,  PhD course, University of Chiang Mai, Thailand, 2007.

7.      Panel data, PhD course,  Economics Department of Coruña, 2006-07.

8.      Applied Econometrics, Time Series and Economics of Telecommunications, Master in Economic Analysis and Financial Economics, MAEF, University Complutense of Madrid, 1995-2007.

9.      Panel data, PhD course,  Economics Department, University of La Habana, Cuba, 2004-05.

10.  Panel data, post graduate training, Telefónica de España, 2005.

11.  Model selection using RETINA,  postgraduate training, Telefónica de España, 2005.

12.  Panel data, PhD course,  University of Oviedo,  2000-03.

13.  Intermediate Microeconomics and Intermediate Macroeconomics, undergraduate level, University Complutense of Madrid, 1996-1999.

14.  Applied Econometrics and Advanced econometrics, PhD program, University Complutense of Madrid, 1990-1996.





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